How we count

Where the data comes from

All data comes from Kalshi’s public API. We are not affiliated with Kalshi.

Prices of events that start within the next 24 hours, or started less than 6 hours ago, update every 20 seconds. Everything else updates every 10 minutes: new events, new words, results and the other prices.

k/n: how often a word was said

k/n means: said in k of n past events of this speaker where this exact word was a market. A word counts as said when its market settled YES.

On ABC World News Tonight a word counts when any host or reporter says it, so its k/n is counted over past shows of the program, not over one speaker. The first shows, in July 2026, counted only David Muir; to leave them out, type “reporter” under Title contains in Choose events.

On an earnings call a word counts when anyone speaking for the company says it, the call operator included; analysts asking questions do not count. Each company is counted on its own, over its own past calls on Kalshi. Most companies have only one to four past calls, so most of their words carry the small n label. We have no transcripts of past calls: the results are Kalshi’s.

Words match only by their exact key: the same variants split by a slash, and the same “N+ times” threshold. So “Tariff” and “Tariffs” are two different words, and so are “Tariff” and “Tariff (3+ times)”.

Kalshi’s rules decide which forms of a word count: the exact word, its plural and its possessive. For a word with slashes, any of its variants counts. We take each result as Kalshi settled it.

k/n in the same format

The second k/n column counts only past events of the same format as this one:

• Rally
• Tele-rally
• Press conference
• Interview
• Meeting
• Speech / ceremony

We read the format from the event title and the market rules, before the event starts. Events with no clear format, ABC World News Tonight (every show is the same kind), earnings calls and windows have no second column.

In Last 5, a filled badge is a past event of the same format as this one; an outlined badge is another format.

Choosing events by hand

On the page of a single event, Choose events lets you pick which past events of the speaker to count: tick them, or type a part of their title. The Chosen column then shows k/n over those events only, by the same rules as the All column. The choice lives in the page address, so a link shares it; nothing is stored.

Transcribe

On the page of an event that has not settled, the Transcribe link opens a page that listens to the broadcast and marks the market words as they are said. Your browser sends the sound of a tab you share, or of your microphone, straight to Deepgram, a speech-to-text service, on your own Deepgram key. The key, the sound and the text stay between your browser and Deepgram and never reach our server.

Deepgram charges your account about $0.46 an hour at its list price; new accounts get $200 of free credit. A word counts when its exact form, its plural or its possessive is heard, as in Kalshi's rules; a word with “N+ times” needs N mentions. The event page then shows it as heard, in this browser only.

Speech recognition makes mistakes, and it cannot tell who is speaking or whether a clip is playing. Switch counting off while someone else speaks, dismiss false mentions, and always check the stream yourself.

Which events count

Only events that were held count. Three kinds of events are left out:

• events where “Event does not qualify” settled YES;
• cancelled events;
• events where every word settled NO and there was no “Event does not qualify” market.

The event page shows them on their own line, as “Not held: x of y”.

No look-ahead

Each event is compared only with events that took place before it. The page of a past event shows k/n as it was before that event started.

Windows (“this week”, “this month”, companies in a month, nicknames before a date) are never mixed with single events. A window is compared only with past windows of the same kind: weeks with weeks, months with months, company windows with company windows, nickname windows with nickname windows.

Small samples

When n is below 5, the word gets a small n label. A few events say little. A word that no held past event of this speaker had as a market is marked new word.

Lowest prices

Open “history” under a word to see its last 5 events, newest first. For each one we show the lowest trade price in the 24 hours before the start, leaving out the hour when the market had just opened, and the lowest trade price during the event. Both come from hourly candles. Then the volume in contracts.

On the page of a settled event, Before start is the last trade price before the start: the close of the last hourly candle in the 24 hours before it, leaving out the hour when the market had just opened.

During an event, a word whose yes bid is 99¢ or more is struck through on a grey background and moves to the top of the table, as on Kalshi. If its bid then falls below 99¢, the word stays on top without the strike and gets a red unbond label.

What this is not

Not financial advice. We show what happened in the past, not forecasts. There is no Edge and no buy or sell advice here.

All times are in ET and MSK: New York and Moscow time.